Ukraine vs Russia
Hello friends,
INTRODUCTION
From few weeks, it is being reported the war may break out between Russia and Ukraine.
Russia has mobilised more than 100,000 soldiers to Ukraine's border these aren't cross-border tensions between two countries .There is a literal threat that Russia may invade Ukraine. meaning that it will establish its control over Ukraine. Ukraine may cease to exist. The USA and the countries of the European Union have warned Russia that if you chooses to do so, strict actions will be taken against Russia, and countries like China, have shown support to Russia on this issue. it means that all major countries have become aligned on one side or the other in this war. It is also being said that if it does happen if Russia declares war here, it increases the chances of world war III breaking out.
BACKGROUND
To understand this issue better, we need to go into Russia and Ukraine's history.
Most people begin at the year 1991.
The year when the USSR or the Soviet Union broke up into 15 countries. The biggest of which was Russia. And Ukraine was also part of the USSR. It got independent after 1991. You might think that this story is similar like India-Pakistan-Bangladesh. Because before 1947, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh were one country. And you might conclude that joining Ukraine and Russia again wouldn't be so wrong. But this isn't a valid comparison. Because in 1921, Lenin's Red Army had invaded Ukraine. After this Communist Russian Revolution, the USSR was established in 1922. The Union of 15 different Soviet Socialist Republic countries. One of the countries was the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. The question arises, What was Ukraine before this? Ukraine was an independent country. But it had gotten its independence a mere 3 years ago in 1918. Independence for whom? Independence from the Russian Empire. And as you know, the Russian Empire was overthrown in 1917 by the Russian Revolutionaries. So basically, Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire then it got independence, and then the people that overthrew the Russian Empire went ahead and invaded Ukraine again, If you talk about the era before the Russian Empire, then there were some instances when Russia and Ukraine were parts of the same Empire. And some instances, when Ukraine was part of the Lithuanian or Polish Empires. But we don't need to go so deep into the details. The point remains that the spirit of Ukrainian nationalism, the distinct identity of Ukraine as a country, isn't of feeling that developed after 1991. It has been in the Ukrainian people for long time. It is interesting to know what happened after 1991.
THE BREAKDOWN OF SOVIET UNION
When soviet union broke apart, some Ukrainians breathed a sigh of relief, they thought their country finally earned its independence from the Soviet Union. They bid adieu to Moscow, as parted as friends. And they looked towards the European Union, intending to join them. That they wanted to become and independent European country like others. But on the other hand, there were also people that harboured a lot of sympathy for the Russians. Considering themselves to be Russians. They believed that Russians and Ukrainians are ethnically similar both are classified as Slavic, there aren't major differences. They are majirly christian. And in both countries, other religions are in minority. For these people, the events of 1991, was like partition. It was a tragedy for them. from the latter category of people, was Vladimir Putin.Just last week, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major humanitarian tragedy. In which more than 25 million Russians were suddenly cut off from Russia, and had to disperse into verious independent countries. A ling artical was published on Kremlin's website in it, Putin claims that Ukraine and Ukrainians,are an indispensable part of Russian history and culture.So basically, Putin considers Ukraine to be a part of Russia.But what about the people of Ukraine? What do they think？The people living in Eastern Ukraine, the area that lies beside Russia's border,The people are mostly pro-Russia there.But if were to talk about the overall country, a little more than the majority of peple, are in favour of joining the Europeans Union. In favour of continuing as an independent country And this isn't only for the people of Ukraine. Rather the politicians of Ukraine are also divided into 2 groups. One group is the pro-Europeans Union.And the other is pro-Russia. If I talk about the data, according to a survey from April 2017, 53％ of Ukrainians were in the favour of joining the European Union. and 46％ Ukrainians, favour joining NATO. NATO is an alliance between the USA and the European countries. You can think of them as being against Russia. According to the same survey, 27 % of Ukrainians were against joining NATO. And the others did not have a strong opinion. So you can say that about 20-30% of people favour Russia. 1st May 2004 It was a historic day for the European countrys. It was the day when 10 new countries joined European Union. Cyprus, Czech, Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. It was special because 8 out of the 10 countries are former Communist countries. Either they used to be a part of the Soviet Union, or they were under its influence. There are 3 such countries, called the Baltic countries. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. On the map, you can see that the 3 countries share a border with Russia.And the sharing of the border is quite significant. Because not only are these countries a part of the European Union, but a part of NATO also. NATO stands for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. And it is a military alliance. It means that if a war breaks out against any NATO country, or any NATO country is attacked, the rest of the NATO countries would come to protect it with their militaries. Mainly the USA and the European countries are part of NATO, as I told you. The other military alliance on the Eastern side, was called the Warsaw Pact. But when the Soviet Union collapsed, the Warsaw Pact was also disbanded. But NATO's existence continues even today. And 30 countries are part of NATO, in total. On this map, you can see the NATO countries. The European countries have blocked Russia on one side. and on the other side, Japan is also a major NATO partner. In fact japan is a part of the G7 and the Quad Group as well. Russia has a long border with Finland as well. Although Finland isn't an active member of NATO, but it has been a contributor to NATO-led operations. And on this map, look at Ukraine. Ukraine shares a long border with Russia. If Ukraine becomes a part of Russia too, Russia will obviously be pressured, because it is surrounded by all sides.
UKRAINE- NATO PARTNERSHIP
This isn't a hypothetical situation. In1997, a NATO-Ukraine Commission was set up, so that Ukraine and NATO could partner with one another. About 10 years later, in 2008, Ukraine wanted to solemnize the friendship. NATO Summit was underway, and Ukraine stated that it wanted to become a part of NATO. Along with Ukraine, Georgia had similar wish. and the other NATO country were pleased with this. They agreed to make Ukraine a part of them.But the proper procedure had to be followed.Ukraine and Georgia were on their Membership Action plan, To get the membership of NATO In 2017, the Ukrainian Parliamentnt even adopted a Legislation, which stated that getting NATO membership is a major objective for Ukraine.For the Foreine and Security Policy of Ukraine.
RUSSIAN THREATS TO UKRAINE
Some days ago, on 16th December 2021, there was a meeting between the President of Ukraine and the chief of NATO, In brussels. There, Ukraine reiterates its commitment. to eventually join NATO. Despite Russia's objection. As you can guess, obviously, Russia strongle object to it. Putin had a video meeting with the US president Joe Biden, on 13 December, talked to the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, On 14 December, had a phone call with the French President Emmanuel Macron and President of Finland. And has put forward a demand to all of them, to guarantee them that Ukraine would not be a part of NATO. And what do you think, would NATO agree❓
Absolutely not. NATO said that Ukraine is an independent sovereign country. Ukraine is free to make its decisions. Whether it wants to become a part of NATO or not.The massage was very clear here.Since NATO and Ukraine are willing, What could Putin do❓ An intresting question ,
What would Putin do❓ Putin's answer is equally intresting. He"ll give them a chance before moving to dire methods. As I told you earlier, the part of Eastern Ukraine, is inhabited by mostly pro-Rssia people, and that part often wants to separate from Ukraine to become a part of Russia. So Russia is starting to support the separatists in that area. In these 2 provinces here, Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia is enabling a proxy war here. More than 14,000 people have been killed in this proxy war. On top of it, Russia accuses Ukraine of genocide in Easting Ukraine. And now we to today's situation. Even after supporting the separatist group , Russia saw that Ukraine and NATO, are continuing withtheir relationship. They aren't willing to parts ways.So Russia has started building up a military now. More than 100,000 troops have been stationed at the border. The tanks and missiles are ready. Not only at the Eastern Border, but on the North-Eastern border as well. Russia is shown itself ready to go to war. Here, you may be wondering how realistic is it❓
Is Russia merely threatening to start a war, or does Russia have the ability to invade another country❓ Can it even be possible in this day and age❓ Friends, I'd like to tell you here, not only is this possible,Russia has already done it. in 2014 . By invading Crimea. The thing is, Ukraine was about to join the European Union in 2013 , The European Union had asked Ukraine to fulfil certain conditions, and then it could become a part of the European Union. The conditions were basically to show that Ukraine is a democratic country, and the people have full freedom there. One of the conditions was, to free their opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko from jail. The majority of the Ukrainian Paliment was in favour this. They were ready to fulfil the conditions of the Eropean Union. Soon, an Association Agreement was to be signed. But on the other hand, Russia was applying a lot of pressure to prevent this from happening. To pressure Ukraine, Russia changed the Customs Regulations. The import from Ukraine to Russia, were stopped. Putin threatened Ukraine That if Ukraine became a member of the Eropean Union, then they could say goodbuy to trading with them . That they would punish Ukraine. But if Ukraine reffused to go through with it, then they would reward Ukraine. Russia offered a loan of﹩15 billion to Ukraine . A literal brobe by Russia to Ukraine. Additionally, Ukraine wae also offered cheap gas prices. The then President of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovych, Bent under Putin's pressure. And the Agreement that he was about to sign with the European Union, he refused to sign it. and so it was suspended. And the common cotizen of Ukraine, were angered by all of it. That they had to Russia because of the bribe. On 21st November 2013, thousands of student assembled at Independence Square to protest it. On 30th November, the Ukrainian goverment used violence againt the protestors, to remove them. This sparked more anger among the protestors. Protests grew even more, On 16th January 2014, the Ukrainian President passed some shamful laws. Freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and the activities of NGOs were restricted. They tried to restrict the protests. And the laws were passed very undemocratically in their Parliaments. They voted by a show of hands only, the Parliamentary Committee wasn't consulted, MPs weren't allowed to examine the laws, Does it remind you of something❓ India had passed some invalid laws too. And these led to the 2014 Revolution in Ukraine. It is also named the Revolution of Dignity. Millions of people took to the street's, to protests against their goverment.
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